Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Top Twenty (3/4) and Predictions

1 NC Louisville
30.90
-0.48%
2 (+1) Arizona
30.32
0.43%
3 (-1) Iowa
30.05
-0.86%
4 NC Duke
29.86
-0.07%
5 NC Oklahoma St.
29.73
0.27%
6 NC Creighton
29.55
-0.27%
7 NC Michigan
29.40
-0.20%
8 (+1) Villanova
29.32
0.24%
9 (-1) Ohio St.
29.25
-0.48%
10 NC Kentucky
29.05
-0.51%
11 NC Michigan St.
29.01
-0.38%
12 (+1) Kansas
28.95
0.00%
13 (-1) UCLA
28.92
-0.45%
14 NC Florida
28.90
0.07%
15 NC Iowa St.
28.87
0.03%
16 NC Wisconsin
28.70
0.07%
17 NC Cincinnati
28.64
-0.07%
18 NC Connecticut
28.58
-0.10%
19 NEW Arizona St.
28.56
NA
20 NEW Arkansas
28.55
NA

The big loser this week is Iowa, who drops nearly an entire percentage point thanks to three straight losses.  The big winner is Arizona, who continues to roll through the Pac-12.  Arizona State and Arkansas climb back into the Top Twenty, thanks in part to Syracuse and Pittsburgh looking mortal.

PREDICTIONS

The season is ending with a bang, as this week (and particularly next Saturday) has a large number of marquee matchups.

#16 Iowa State @ Baylor:  Baylor by 1

Baylor probably needs a few more wins to get into the Tournament, this is a good opportunity.
#11 Louisville @ #18 SMU:  Louisville by 3

The PM continues to love Louisville despite its unappealing record against the top twenty.
#10 SDSU @ UNLV:  SDSU by 2.5

A possible stumbling block for SDSU.
#6 Villanova @ Xavier:  Villanova by 6

The Cintas Center has been something of a graveyard for visiting ranked teams (as Creighton can testify), but Xavier also does things like lose to Seton Hall, so overall I still expect Villanova to win this game.
#20 Memphis @ #15 Cincinnati:  Cincinnati by 12.5

A surprisingly large number in this game, but Cincinnati is probably better than the AP thinks.
#24 Iowa @ #22 MSU:  MSU by 4

More B10 on B10 thrashing.
#25 Kentucky @ #1 Florida: Florida by 9

Kentucky has struggled for the last half of February and into March, and this is going to be another frustrating game, I think.
#14 UNC @ #4 Duke: Duke by 12.5

The PM is unimpressed by UNC's recent wins.

#21 New Mexico @ #10 SDSU:  SDSU by 5

Comparing this game to the UNLV game shows the power of the HCA.
#19 Connecticut @ #11 Louisville:  Louisville by 14

Should be an easy win for Pitino's boys.
Oklahoma State @ #16 Iowa State:  Iowa State by 5

There's some talk that OK State won't get into the Tournament without a few more wins.  Crazy talk in my opinion, but what do I know.  A win at Iowa State would probably clinch a spot, but that's going to be a tough road.

#18 SMU @ #20 Memphis: Memphis by 3.5
Both teams are probably a lock for the Tournament at this point, and might not have much to play for in this game.

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