Monday, February 24, 2014

Top Twenty & Predictions (2/24)

1 NC Louisville
31.05
-0.13%
2 NC Iowa
30.31
-0.33%
3 NC Arizona
30.19
0.53%
4 NC Duke
29.88
-0.43%
5 (+1) Oklahoma St.
29.65
0.34%
6 (-1) Creighton
29.63
-0.07%
7 NC Michigan
29.46
0.14%
8 NC Ohio St.
29.39
0.17%
9 NC Villanova
29.25
-0.14%
10 NC Kentucky
29.20
-0.21%
11 NC Michigan St.
29.12
0.17%
12 NC UCLA
29.05
0.24%
13 (+2) Kansas
28.95
0.66%
14 (-1) Florida
28.88
-0.24%
15 (-1) Iowa St.
28.86
-0.14%
16 (+4) Wisconsin
28.68
0.35%
17 NEW Cincinnati
28.66
N/A
18 (-1) Connecticut
28.61
-0.28%
19 (-1) Pittsburgh
28.56
-0.28%
20 (-1) Syracuse
28.51
-0.45%

The farther we get into the season, the harder it is for the ratings to move, so as an experiment I'm showing the change in ratings from the previous Top Twenty as a percentage.  The big upward moves this week are Kansas (pounded #19 Texas), Arizona (pounded Colorado) and Wisconsin (beat #15 Michigan and #15 Iowa).  The big losers are Syracuse and Duke for obvious reasons.

#1 Syracuse @ Maryland:  Syracuse by 1
#1 Syracuse @ #14 Virginia:  Virginia by 2


Syracuse is barely favored at mediocre Maryland, which could lead to the spectacle of having the #1 team lose four straight games.  How Boeheim will top his Duke meltdown if this happens is unknown.

BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK

Virginia Tech @ #5 Duke:  Duke by 31


VT is getting worse much faster than Duke is getting worse.

#20 Michigan @ Purdue:  Michigan by 3

A good chance for Purdue to steal a meaningless but satisfying upset.

#7 Cincinnati @ #21 Connecticut:  UConn by 6

Cincinnati has popped onto the PM's Top Twenty this week but will probably be overmatched at Connecticut.

#8 Kansas @ Oklahoma State: OKSt by 5

The PM may be the last believer in OK State (although they had a good win this week against Texas Tech).  If the PM is to be believed, they have a good chance to beat Kansas next Saturday.

#11 Louisville @ #22 Memphis: Louisville by 3

A good illustration of how powerful the HCA is in college basketball.  This is #1 versus #34 in the PM's book, and the #1 is still only favored by 3 points because they're on the road.  Speaking of which...

#15 Iowa @ Minnesota: Iowa by 4
#11 Creighton @ Xavier:  Creighton by 3.5
#17 Kansas State @ Iowa State:  KSU by 4
#19 Texas @ Oklahoma: Oklahoma by 12
#25 Gonzaga @ St. Mary's:  SMU by 2


We could easily see all the ranked teams lose.  The moral of this story is "Try not to play road games as a mediocre ranked team."  :-)

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