Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Top Twenty (2/19)

The Top Twenty was delayed a bit this week so that I could finish up some data collection (more on that shortly).

1 Louisville 31.09
NC
2 Iowa 30.41
NC
3 Arizona 30.03
NC
4 Duke 30.01
NC
5 Creighton 29.65
(+1)
6 Oklahoma St. 29.55
(-1)
7 Michigan 29.42
NC
8 Ohio St. 29.34
NC
9 Villanova 29.29
NC
10 Kentucky 29.26
NC
11 Michigan St. 29.07
NC
12 UCLA 28.98
(+1)
13 Florida 28.95
(+1)
14 Iowa St. 28.9
(-2)
15 Kansas 28.76
(+1)
16 Arizona St. 28.7
(+2)
17 Connecticut 28.69
NEW
18 Pittsburgh 28.64
(-3)
19 Syracuse 28.64
(-2)
20 Wisconsin 28.58
NEW

The top ten is remarkably stable this week.  Some shifting around in the bottom half -- Pittsburgh losing to Syracuse brought them down, and Syracuse's near miss at NC State has brought them down.  Meanwhile ASU moves up thanks to the nice (but not completely improbable) win against Arizona.

PREDICTIONS

TOSS-UP OF THE WEEK
#23 UCLA @ Cal

 Cal is a bare favorite at home.

#5 Duke @ UNC:  Duke +4

Assuming no more freak snowstorms.  A win here would prepare Duke for...

#1 Syracuse @ #5 Duke:  Duke +10
It's an almost certain end to Syracuse's unbeaten streak.   A team that needs a last second basket to escape (#100) NC State is going to have to play a lot better to win at Cameron.

#11 Louisville @ #7 Cincinnati:  Louisville +4

Louisville is underrated by the AP and Cincinnati is overrated.

#19 Texas @ #8 Kansas:  Kansas +10

Despite the scare at Texas Tech, Kansas should handle Texas without any problems.

#16 Wisconsin @ #15 Iowa: Iowa +7

Road records in the B10 have been crazy, so I'm hesitant to put much faith in this prediction.

BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK 
San Jose State @ SDSU:  SDSU +29
VT @ Duke is also going to be a blowout.

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