Exploring algorithms for predicting NCAA basketball games.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Machine Madness: Some Final Four Analysis
Games don't start here in San Jose until 4 pm, so I've started to take a look at the Machine Madness entries. Here are some observations about the Final Four predictions:
To the extent that there is consensus, the predictors seem to think the champion is going to come out of the Midwest bracket -- both Duke and Louisville get five "votes" as champion. The next most popular picks are Florida (4), Indiana (3) and OSU (2). The predictors are particularly dismissive of Kansas and Gonzaga as #1 seeds -- they both get only one vote for champion. Least Likely champion prediction goes to LA's Machine Mad pick: Notre Dame. That ain't happening :-).
Looking at who the predictors think will be in the final game, Louisville dominates with 10 votes, followed by Florida (7), Kansas (6), Indiana (6), Duke (5), Gonzaga (3) and OSU (2). Florida gets a lot more love from the predictors than from the Committee; clearly the predictors think Florida is closer to a 1 seed than a 3. Conversely, the predictors don't think much of #2 seed Miami, which only got one vote to get to the final game.
As mentioned, Louisville and Duke dominate the machine picks for the Midwest Region. In the West, Gonzaga gets 11 votes, followed by tOSU with 6 votes. Interestingly, New Mexico got 3 votes to win the West -- that obviously won't happen, but I'm curious to see what those predictors have in common that led to that conclusion. In the South, Florida gets 13 votes and Kansas 7. In the East, Indiana is the overwhelming favorite with 17 votes -- interesting because only 3 of the predictors see Indiana winning everything.
Craziest Final Four
We have to combine predictions across different entries, but: Missouri, Notre Dame, UNC, Davidson. Seems unlikely :-)