Saturday, January 19, 2013

Here are some predictions for today's games from the Prediction Machine (PM):

#6 Syracuse @ #1 Louisville:  Louisville by 6.

Syracuse is not good enough to beat Louisville at home.  The return game on 3/2 could be more interesting.

#4 Kansas @ Texas:  Kansas by 10.5

Texas just not a good team this year.

#7 Arizona @ ASU:  Arizona by 6.

ASU has lost to all the decent teams they've played, but might be good enough to surprise someone one of these days.  Maybe Arizona?  Maybe UCLA?

#8 Gonzaga @ #13 Butler: Gonzaga by 4

Should be a good game.

#17 Missouri @ #10 Florida: Florida by 9

Florida is probably under-ranked right now.

#11 OSU @ #18 MSU:  OSU by 1

Basically a toss-up.  The Big Ten looks tight this year, so could end up being an important game.

#12 Creighton @ Wichita State:  Wichita State by 1

Creighton seems be a dark-horse darling for a lot of analysts, but the PM isn't impressed (yet).

#15 SDSU @ Wyoming: Wyoming by 5.5

Wyoming screwed the PM the other night by losing by 13 on the road to Fresno State, but the PM is doubling down on a big home win.  We'll see.

Oklahoma @ #16 KSU: KSU by 6.
Rutgers @ #20 NDU: NDU by 9.5

Should be routine wins for both home teams.

#21 Oregon @ #24 UCLA: UCLA by 2

Basically a toss-up.

#22 VCU @ Duquesne: VCU by 13

VCU is another analyst darling and will not be challenged by Duquesne.

#25 Marquette @ Cincy: Cincy by 4

Unless a fight breaks out.

Other Interesting Games:

   Maryland @ UNC: UNC by 7.  (I would have thought this would be closer.)
   Kentucky @ Auburn: UK by 9.  (Surprised it's not more.)

Blowouts:

  Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin:  Austin by 39
  Portland @ St. Mary's: Portland by 13

Nailbiters:

  Eastern Illinois @ Austin Peay:  Austin by 0.06
  Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville St.: Jacksonville by 0.08
  Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan:  Eastern Michigan by 0.09

For some reason the Eastern schools are playing tight today.

Made some interesting progress this week on some aspects of the predictor, and I hope to report out on them soon.

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