Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Another Approach to Early Season Performance

Continuing on with my efforts to better model early season performance, it occurred to me that it might be good to model a team as the average of several previous years teams.  So we'd predict that Duke 2012-2013 would perform like an average of the 2009-2010, 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 teams.

This is a fairly straightforward experiment in my setup -- I just read in all three previous seasons as if they were one long preseason, and then predict the early season games.  Of course, with a twelve thousand game "preseason" this takes a while -- particularly when you keep making mistakes at the end of the processing chain and have to start over again :-).

At any rate, the conclusion is that this approach doesn't work very well.  The MOV error over the first thousand games was 12.60 -- worse than just priming with the previous seasons data.


  1. Slightly OT but have you read this post about NFL ranking?

    1. I had not seen that, so thanks very much for the pointer. Looks like the first and only post on that blog so far -- I'll be interested to see where it goes. (And by the way, feel free to email me srt19170 at Google mail.)