Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Football Predictions

Shown below are predictions for this week's upcoming football games.  I did a little tweaking and developed a new algorithm for this week's predictions so you'll see two predictions below.

The first is the new algorithm, the second is an ensemble of three algorithms. The new algorithm is similar to the "Homemade Sagarin Ratings" described here (although I do not use Excel Solver to calculate my ratings).  The Sagarin ratings do very well at the Prediction Tracker, so I wanted to implement something similar and see how it did in comparison to my other predictors.  Much to my surprise, it equals or surpasses my best football predictors.  In past tests on the basketball data, this type of predictor did not perform well, but in the course of implementing it for football I found several problems, so I intend to retest this on the basketball data and look at some possible improvements if warranted.

If anyone knows a better description of the Sagarin PREDICTOR algorithm, please let me know.

As always when viewing my predictions, heed the Disclaimer.

+-------------------+----------------+---------------+---------------+
|Hname              |Aname           |prediction(1)  |prediction(2)  |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|wisconsin          |purdue          |23.4           |19.2           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|west virginia      |louisville      |11.6           |9.3            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|maryland           |virginia        |4.1            |1.5            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|rice               |texas-el paso   |-.3            |1.0            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|texas              |texas tech      |11.1           |11.1           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|wyoming            |texas christian |-16.7          |-15.5          |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|tennessee          |middle          |22.3           |20.5           |
|                   |tennessee state |               |               |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|oregon state       |stanford        |-18.7          |-20.2          |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|east carolina      |southern        |-13.0          |-10.4          |
|                   |mississippi     |               |               |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|southern           |tulane          |19.0           |18.1           |
|methodist          |                |               |               |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|san jose state     |idaho           |10.7           |9.9            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|san diego state    |new mexico      |32.9           |29.0           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|rutgers            |south florida   |2.1            |1.4            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|washington         |oregon          |-13.7          |-12.8          |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|oklahoma state     |kansas state    |15.3           |14.2           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|oklahoma           |texas a&m       |17.7           |17.9           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|ohio state         |indiana         |21.7           |21.2           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|wake forest        |notre dame      |-10.0          |-10.5          |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|north carolina     |north carolina  |-4.9           |-6.4           |
|state              |                |               |               |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|nebraska           |northwestern    |12.2           |13.1           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|navy               |troy            |7.4            |6.5            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|baylor             |missouri        |2.0            |4.4            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|michigan state     |minnesota       |22.9           |22.8           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|iowa               |michigan        |-11.3          |-14.1          |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|miami (florida)    |duke            |8.7            |8.4            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|fresno state       |louisiana tech  |-3.2           |-4.9           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|louisiana-lafayette|
louisiana-monroe|11.3           |13.6           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|kentucky           |mississippi     |-2.1           |-.8            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|iowa state         |kansas          |19.3           |19.7           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|alabama-birmingham |houston         |-31.4          |-30.6          |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|hawaii             |utah state      |1.2            |.7             |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|georgia            |new mexico state|24.8           |25.2           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|western kentucky   |florida         |-3.3           |-3.9           |
|                   |international   |               |               |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|florida            |vanderbilt      |8.6            |9.9            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|eastern michigan   |ball state      |4.2            |4.7            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|connecticut        |syracuse        |-1.6           |-3.3           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|pittsburgh         |cincinnati      |-1.3           |-2.0           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|california         |washington state|3.1            |3.5            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|nevada-las vegas   |boise state     |-30.6          |-28.2          |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|florida atlantic   |arkansas state  |-12.7          |-15.1          |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|arkansas           |south carolina  |.6             |1.0            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|ucla               |arizona state   |-7.5           |-7.2           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|arizona            |utah            |1.3            |-1.7           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|alabama            |louisiana state |3.9            |5.9            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|air force          |army            |11.1           |12.8           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|colorado           |southern        |-13.6          |-16.1          |
|                   |california      |               |               |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|kent               |central michigan|5.5            |8.4            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|central florida    |tulsa           |-2.5           |1.0            |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|miami (ohio)       |akron           |13.8           |13.3           |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+
|boston college     |florida state   |-13.5          |-13.3          |
+-------------------+---------
-------+---------------+---------------+

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